Relevance: GS Paper II (International Relations)
Why has this issue cropped up?
Recently, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj has had a productive diplomatic sojourn in New York. She met a larger number of foreign leaders on the margins of the UN General Assembly. There was one big missing link though. It was the annual engagement at the UN with the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Recent developments related to Gulf region
- The confrontation between the Gulf Arabs and Iran is one of the top international security issues on the table at the UN this year. It is also, arguably, the most important emerging regional security challenge for India.
- The 2015 nuclear agreement between US and Iran, which has been discarded by President Donald Trump, had been hotly debated at the first week of the annual UNGA session this year. It was also part of the main theme of this year’s UN Security Council summit.
- The differences between US and its most important allies in Europe on Iran were sharp and out in the open.
- There is a deep opposition in the Arab countries of the Gulf to President Barack Obama’s nuclear agreement with Iran and key sections of the region have welcomed Trump’s decision to discard the deal.
- There was a meeting between the US Secretary of State and ministers from eight Arab nations. All participants agreed on the need to confront threats from Iran directed at the region and the United States.
- It added that the ministers had “productive discussions” on setting up what is to be known as the Middle East Strategic Alliance to promote security and stability in the region. Critics have billed the putative alliance as the “Arab NATO”. Some call it the “Sunni challenge” to confront the fears about the emergence of a “Shiite Crescent” in the Middle East, backed by Iran. This new organisation, likely to be launched in January, is expected to reinforce the expansive new regime of US sanctions against Iran that are to go into effect next month.
India and the Gulf region?
- The foreign policy question is about how Delhi must deal with the rapidly changing situation in the Gulf region, whose economic and political salience for India is not matched by any other sub-region in the world.
- But here is the problem. India deals with one part of it (the American question), but ducks the other (Arab question).
- Over the last two decades, India has had to manage the Iran factor in its quest to build a closer partnership with the US. India’s approach to Iran’s nuclear proliferation had become a major issue between Delhi and Washington.
- Traditionalists in Delhi argued that India must stand up for Iran against the US. The small group of realists prevailed by insisting that India must take care of its own nuclear interests rather than those of Iran.
- US is confident that Iran will come back to renegotiate the nuclear deal with Washington. In the interim, Delhi is practical enough to find ways to avoid the effect of America’s Iran sanctions on the Indian economy.
The questions raised by India’ approach towards Iran
- But India’s approach appears bereft of realism when it comes to dealing with the conflict between Gulf Arabs and Iran. Many in the Middle East ask why Delhi tilts towards Tehran, when so many of India’s interests — including trade, energy, expatriate remittances, and counter-terror cooperation — are so heavily to tied to the Gulf Arabs.
- They are also frustrated that Delhi, which denounces Pakistan’s destabilisation of the Subcontinent at every opportunity, never utters a word about Iran’s effort to undermine the regional political order in the Arab world.
Conclusion
As storm clouds gather in the Gulf, Delhi can’t afford to ignore the deepening Arab fears about Iran and their expectations for a measure of political understanding from India.
