Section: International Relations
Title: Averting India’s Fall into a Geopolitical Trap
Relevance: GS 2
Why has this issue been raised?
India has made a foreign policy course-correction after realizing that the strategic tilt towards the United States has not only grossly upset India’s geopolitical image but also undermined national interests. Indian interests are being particularly affected by the US decision to link its sanctions on Iran and Russia with India.
Impacts of India’s tilt towards US
There has been an overwhelming impression that India is stooping to become a regional ally of the US in the latter’s new strategic theatre of “Indo-Pacific” to keep the sea lanes of communication open But moving closer to Washington has been seen as having had a wide-ranging adverse impact.
- Firstly, it is forcing India to walk a diplomatic tightrope between the US, Russia and China.
- Secondly, relying too much on fickle US policies appears risky. As can be seen on the trade front, US is backing out on his commitments to its friends and allies.
- Thirdly, closer military ties with the US could draw India into a larger political quagmire in terms of attracting the attention of global Islamic terrorist groups which are committed to undermining the interests of America and its allies wherever possible.
- Lastly, the process could eventually result in the US making a Pakistan out of India and the attendant loss of standing in the world as a great nation.
Russian Displeasure
- Russia couldn’t have been pleased with India switching over to the American military supply chain system. However, Moscow continues to transfer the most sensitive strategic armaments to India.
- What really appears to have miffed Russia was India’s decision to forego its strategic balance by joining the ‘Quadrilateral’ talks with the US, Australia and Japan since 2017.
The course correction
- New Delhi seems to have realised the mistake of prematurely denouncing the traditionally followed multi-engagement foreign policy or a “balancing” approach in the global system.
- Prime Minister Modi’s “informal” meeting with President Xi Jinping in Wuhan and “agenda-less” talks with President Vladimir Putin in Sochi proved a masterstroke and turning point for his diplomacy.
- In particular, PM’s keynote speech at the Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore seemed a calibrated move to prevent India falling into a dangerous geopolitical trap vis-à-vis US, Russia and China. The subtext of the speech was to reaffirm India’s commitment to multi-polarity and fight against “global dominance”.
- Importantly, PM avoided making a reference to the ‘Quad’ in Singapore and instead spoke out strongly against “protectionism” – an oblique reference to the Trump policy.
- Although he praised the US “Indo-Pacific” strategy, he also made it clear that India does not see it “as a club of limited members (or) as a grouping that seeks to dominate” which strongly implied that India is not seeing it as an alliance system.
- In fact, when US officials described India as the “fulcrum” of or “central” to US Indo-Pacific strategy, Modi deflected the idea by affirming the centrality of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
- And, in contrast to US Defense Secretary warning China over maritime ‘intimidation’, PM talked about seeking closer ties with China and termed “stable relations” between the two countries as “an important factor for global peace and progress.”
- PM went a step further and advised other powers to avoid taking a confrontationist line to prevent “great power rivalries”.
- At SCO summit in Qingdao, PM joined other leaders in committing to the “Shanghai Spirit” – a term coined in 2006 to invert the Cold War-era mentality.
Way forward
- New Delhi needs to be mindful of the fluid nature of the dynamics in security relationships in the Asia-Pacific.
- India seeking exemptions from higher tariffs on Indian items in the US market need to understand that Trump is likely to agree to such a step only if he is able to make enough profits by selling US arms to India.
- The process of resetting the ties may have begun in Wuhan, probably with India’s willingness to stop playing the Dalai Lama card in return for China’s willingness to end using Pakistan as a proxy. India should try and avert further challenges posed by China from multiplying.
- There can’t be an Asia without China just as there can’t be an Asia without India. In fact, most Asian nations, despite their disputes and differences, do not approve of all-round hostility against each other.
Conclusion
Realizing that India can no longer continue with the old habit of remaining a geopolitical bystander in Asia, a nuanced shift in India’s policy of moving away from the West-led conservationist approach is a welcome move.
