Relevance : GS Paper II
Why has this issue been Raised?
U.S. has decided not to issue any additional ‘Significant Reduction Exceptions’ to existing importers of Iranian oil.
Countries Impacted this Decision
India, China and Turkey will feel the greatest impact of this policy.
China’s Response
- China is likely to defy the American demand as it is a major world power.
- Furthermore, it is firmly opposed to unilateral sanctions.
Turkey’s Response
Turkey and Iran have overlapping strategic interests such as regarding Kurdish secessionism, territorial integrity of Iraq, shared antipathy towards Saudi Arabia. Therefore, it is unlikely that Turkey will bend completely to American will.
India’s Response
- New Delhi is likely to comply with American demands because of the following factors:
- S. is India’s largest trading partner.
- convergence of American and Indian interests regarding containing China.
- civil nuclear relationship with the U.S. is very important for India
- However, India will have to pay the price for compliance with the American diktat because:
- India is involved in building the Chabahar port in southern Iran.
- Iran is also important for in the context of Afghanistan.
- Iran shares India’s antipathy toward Pakistan.
Will Iran surrender to American threat?
Iran has stood up to unprecedented sanctions for four decades and remained unbowed. The current American policy of forcing Tehran to cut its oil exports to zero will only and end up with Tehran adopting an even more virulent anti-American posture.
A Dark Scenario Possibility
- It can well become a prelude to another major war in West Asia.
- Iran is likely to retaliate by withdrawing from the nuclear accord.
- This could lead to strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities which Iran will retaliate to.
- The mayhem in the region can be disastrous for West Asia and for flow of energy supplies.
Conclusion
If not reversed, such a strategy could well lead to another American misadventure in West Asia.
