Relevance : GS Paper II
Introduction
There is an unfolding movement in the world’s two most important strategic relationships.
The two Relationships
- The first is between the world’s leading economic powers — the United States and China — that contribute nearly 40 per cent of global GDP.
- The second is between the world’s top military powers— the US and Russia.
The US—China Fight
- Trump raised tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese exports. Trump has also threatened to impose new tariffs on all imports from China, worth $540 billion in 2018.
- For the US, the problem is no longer just about a massive trade deficit with China. There is a growing sense in Washington that the threat from Beijing is “systemic” and America must respond appropriately.
- Washington is accusing China of stealing intellectual property from the US.
- It is lobbying friends and allies against letting Huawei develop the 5G telecom networks.
- Washington is pushing back against China’s assertive policies in the South China Sea and renewing a measure of strategic support to Taiwan.
What lies ahead in US-China-Russia Relationship?
- The deep economic interdependence between the US and China, puts a limit on the conflict between Washington and Beijing.
- The congealed anti-Russian mood in Washington and Moscow’s anti-Western truculence together prevent even a minimal understanding between the two powers. Any Russian deal — small or big — will meet fierce political resistance in Washington.
Impact on India
- Whichever way the great power dynamic moves, there will be consequences — some bad and others good — for India.
- Whether Trump cuts a deal or escalates the economic war with China, Delhi can’t continue with its trade policy lassitude.
- On the other hand, the rejigging of the political relations between America, China and Russia might present Delhi with fleeting strategic opportunities that need to be seized quickly.
Way forward for India
- As great power relations enter a period of flux, the first task of the next government in Delhi will be to cope with the volatility in the relations between America, China and Russia.
- A couple of summit meetings in June — the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Bishkek Kyrgyzstan and the G-20 in Osaka, Japan — offer an early opportunity for the Indian leadership to assess, first hand, the nature of the new great power dynamic.
