Value Added Article: China’s vulnerability, India’s opportunity | Category – International Relations | Source – IDSA

Relevance: GS Paper 2 (International Relations)

Source:

IDSA


Why has this article surfaced?

India has reportedly decided not to join the US–led counter to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The US initiative, which is a trilateral one involving Japan and Australia seeks to fund infrastructure projects in the region. India has opted to stay out of this initiative and thus maintain a fine balance between the US and China.


How just is India’ move?

  • Such an attempt to maintain a balance between China and the United States needs to be jettisoned since it is a confusing strategy that involves sitting on the fence and, at times, even appeasing the Chinese.
  • India could take advantage of the vulnerabilities in the Chinese system and gain an upper hand in the asymmetric power equation that has developed vis-a-vis China.

Vulnerabilities of China

  • Any mention of China’s vulnerability, whose economy is USD 11 trillion-strong, is sure to raise eyebrows. But the fact remains that China is not all that strong.
  • Geopolitically, President Trump’s outreach to North Korea and advocacy of an Indo-Pacific strategy are eroding China’s geopolitical manoeuvrability.
  • Economically, the ongoing trade war between the US and China is expected to hurt China’s growth, and that could very well mean the erosion of the Communist Party’s credibility given that it draws its legitimacy from continued good economic performance.
  • Internally, one-party rule might appear resilient and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) most powerful. But it is quite baffling to see the Chinese Premier visiting Tibet in July and declaring it an inseparable part of China’s “sacred” territory as well as urging religious figures to promote national unity and ethnic harmony.
  • Further, the fate of Muslims in Xinjiang is dire as China has detained a million ethnic Uighurs and sent some two million Uighurs and other ethnic Muslims to secret camps for indoctrination to Chinese nationalism.
  • Clearly, all is not well inside China. It is spending an enormous amount of money on the People’s Armed Police (PAP), deployed to curb internal rebellion and dissent. China’s expenditure on internal security is reportedly USD 196 billion, larger than the PLA’s official budget. This suggests internal destabilization is a greater worry for the Communist Party than external threats.
  • Indeed, internal vulnerabilities have only exacerbated with President Xi Jinping’s anti-graft effort. More than a million people, including high-ranking military and party officials have been indicted for corruption so far. Xi might confront some kind of a rebellion from within his party ranks and society at large.

China’s efforts to woo India

  • The rising internal vulnerabilities and external pressures have caused China to woo India, with the statement made by Foreign Minister Wang “if China and India are united, one plus one will become eleven instead of two.”
  • The subsequent Wuhan informal summit in April between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi should also be seen in this context.
  • Again, during the 10th BRICS Summit held in Johannesburg between in July, Xi held the view that the five countries of the BRICS represented the five fingers, and that “when the BRICS come together, we form a fist that can punch.” Obviously, it is meant to punch the US.
  • Keeping up the momentum, the Chinese defence minister visited New Delhi in the third week of August to seemingly re-establish military relations between the two Asian giants.
  • Vulnerability not only explains China’s courting of India at this juncture, but it also defines China’s broad foreign policy shifts.
  • Can India-China be good friends?
  • China’s current vulnerability emanates from Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy, which challenges Xi’s dream project, the BRI, with an estimated cost of USD 8 trillion. And to deal with this vulnerability, China is wooing India.
  • However, there is no real bonhomie between India and China, and there can never be, because according to Confucian thought, there cannot be two tigers residing on a single mountain.

Way forward for India

  • In dealing with China, India should thus be aware of the former’s deep insecurities and vulnerabilities.
  • It should shape its China policy from such ‘knowing’ and not from a superficial analysis of the immediate global circumstances.
  • India should reconsider joining the US-led counter to the BRI, albeit after scrupulous negotiations that both uphold its foreign policy interests and shield it from the dragon’s wrath.

 

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