INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
India- China Relation
Context
- India and China held a meeting in New Delhi to discuss trade related issues of pending Indian request for clearance of agricultural products.
- Both sides appreciated each other’s concerns and agreed to resolve market access issues expeditiously in order to achieve the vision of the leaders of both India and China by promoting a more balanced trade.
India- China relations: an Analysis
Introduction
- For thousands of years, Tibet was the buffer that kept India and China geographically apart and at peace.
- It is only after China invaded and occupied Tibet in 1950, the two countries are sharing a common border.
- Before the mid-20th century, India-China relations were minimal and confined to some trade and exchange of pilgrims and scholars. Interactions began after India’s independence (1947) and the Communist revolution in China (1949).
- India was the first non-socialist bloc country to establish diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China.
- India-China relations, though occasionally showing signs of peace and cooperation, have often been afflicted by tension and mistrust.
Reasons for Strain in the Relations
- Historical reasons
- For thousands of years, Tibet was the buffer that kept India and China geographically apart and at peace.
- China invaded and occupied Tibet in 1950, after thattwo countries are sharing a common border.
- India and China share about 3,488-km long border which is yet to be fully delineated.
- The region called Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh, Both India and China claim on.
- China controls the Aksai chin and India controls the Arunachal Pradesh.
- China considers the McMahon Line illegal and unacceptable.
- Shimla Convention in 1914 signed between the British and the Tibetan representativeswhich delineated the Mc Mahon line on the map.
- Nehru and Zhou signed the Panchsheel treaty on 29 April 1954 to lay the roadmap for stability in a region.
- In 1962, China’s People’s Liberation Army invaded India in Ladakh, and across the McMahon Line in the then North-East Frontier Agency. After the conflict, relations were in a freeze.
- Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s landmark visit in 1988 began a phase of improvement in bilateral relations.
- India-China relations normalized through the regular exchange of high-level visits.
Conflicts of interestin Indian Ocean
- China has been strengthening its position in India’s neighbor countries in Indian Ocean.
- China is pursuing strategic maneuvers on a well-thought out route encircling India in the Indian Ocean.
- Beijing has been reaching out to India’s neighbors on the premise of development and trade, allegedly recreating the Silk Route.
- From Nepal in the south east to Myanmar, Bangladesh to Sri Lanka in the south and Pakistan in the west, China plans to encircle India diplomatically.
- There are diplomatic and historical relations between India and surrounding countries, to not just counter the Chinese influence but also strengthen the Indian presence.
India and South China Sea issue
- India’s oil exploration in the South China Sea, which has been undertaken at Vietnam’s request, is objected by China.
- China claims the area of exploration is a ‘disputed’ area and asserting ‘Chinese sovereignty’ over the South China Sea in the ‘historical’ context.
- These exploration fields are very much within the maritime space under the actual control of Vietnam.
- To counter India’s presence in SCS, China casually shrugs off the issue of India’s ‘sovereignty’ over POK in the ‘historical’ context.
- China is currently engaged on a variety of investment projects and infrastructural building activities in Gilgit-Baltistan, and these will be expanded under the CPEC project.
River- Water issue
- One of Asia’s major rivers, the Brahmaputra, originates in Tibet and flows down to India before entering Bangladesh where it joins the Ganges and empties into the Bay of Bengal.
- The dispute between India and china is mainly regarding the Brahmaputra River flowing through the two countries.
- The search for water resources in China and India has persistently been a source of tension between the two countries.
- Chinese efforts to divert the water resources of the Brahmaputra River away from India are a matter of concern to worsen a situation that has remained tense since the 1962 Indo-China war.
- The melting glaciers in the Himalayas as a result of accelerating global climate change will have a dramatic effect on this river’s water supply.
- This will increase water scarcity as well as the likelihood of floods, impact agrarian livelihoods and strain the fragile equilibrium between the two Asian giants.
China-Pakistan factor
- Pakistan shares a common history with India. After the partition in 1947 India -Pakistan relationship has always been
- The longtime friendship between China and Pakistan, rooted in a time when both countries were deeply mistrustful of India, is always a cause of concern for India.
- China providing economic assistance and political backing to Pakistan to fulfill its interest in subcontinent and to counter India’s dominance.
- Pakistan is also anxious for an alliance it can use to balance the growing economic and political clout of India.
- Pakistan offers China a gateway to South Asia, Iran and the Arabian Sea, one of the economic beltways that China has sought to buildthe China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) through the region.
China’s opposition to India’s position in International Bodies
- China has continuously blocked India’s admission into permanent seat of UNSC, & insisted for Pakistan.
- Chinese diplomats say Beijing wants NSG entry to be norm-based — in other words, whatever rules govern Indian entry should apply to others too.
- Norm-based entry would, presumably, help Pakistan gain entry, something many in the NSG are certain to resist because of the country’s record as a proliferator of nuclear-weapons technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea.
INDIA –CHINA TRADE RELATIONS
- Both the countries have shown tremendous economic growth since their respective independences.
- China and India are the major trading partners in the region. During the last decade, bilateral trade has increased notably.
- China share in India’s total trade stood at around 11% during 2016. Further, its share in India’s totalexports stood at 3.7% whereas its share in India’s overall imports stood at 16% during the sameperiod.
- Presently, China is India’s4th biggest export destination whereas the biggest import source.
- The trade figures between Indiaand China witnessed a tremendous jump from USD 2.71 billion in 2001 to around 70 billion in 2016.
- China share in India’s total trade stood at around 11% during 2016. Further, its share in India’s totalexports stood at 3.7% whereas its share in India’s overall imports stood at 16% during the sameperiod.
- Comparatively, the growth of India’s imports from China was laggard with respect toexports. The trend in trade deficit gap for India exponentially widened over the years.
- Bilateral trade has expanded substantially in recent years. Nevertheless, the balance of trade still remains in China’s favor.
Trade deficit
- India faces trade imbalance heavily in favour of China. India has a trade deficit with China of nearly $60 billion.
Reasons for the deficit
- China imports raw material from India e.g. iron ore and exports the finished goods as it has got core competency in manufacturing sector and provides huge energy subsidies.
- India also imports power equipment, consumer electronics and telecommunications gear from china. Importing finished goods obviously cost more.
- China is dumping manufactured products in India.
- India does not have a large access to Chinese market and with Indian rupee declining while Renminbi gaining centre stage the trade deficit is becoming huge.
Cooperation between India and China
- Both countries are members of BRICS, which is now establishing a formal lending arm, the New Development Bank.
- India, a founding member of the China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
- China welcomed India’s full membership of Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
- Both countries have advocated democratization of international institutions such as World Bank, IMF.
- China and India have similar stand during WTO negotiations.
- China and India, being the main targets of criticism by the US and its friends, have so far successfully coordinated their strategies in the environmental summits.
Way forward
- In present and future scenarios, strategic and diplomatic relations between China and India are fraught with complication, tensions and misgivings on both sides upon the historical legacies of relations between the two countries. Much of the mistrust and misgivings emanate from the legacy of the 1962 war between the two countries.
- Despite gloomy predictions about the inevitability of competition between China and India, cooperation between Asia‘s two emerging powers is possible.
- It, will however, require a much more concerted effort to bridge the gap in socio-cultural understanding that existed between them, there remains a fundamental lack of appreciation on the part of each country of the underlying cultural and societal norms that define the other norms that influence each country‘s perception of its own national interest.
OBOR – China’s Project to Connect Asia, Africa, Middle East &Europe
ONE BELT, ONE ROAD (OBOR)
- The One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative is part of China’s major policy framework to boost domestic development and foreign diplomacy. China also wants to ‘reconstruct’ the world order to fulfill its interests and become a dominant world power.
What is OBOR?
- The “belt and road” have two components—
- The Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) that would be established along the Eurasian land corridor from the Pacific coast to the Baltic Sea.
- The 21st century Maritime Silk Road (MSR).
- The “belt and road” run through the continents of Asia, Europe and Africa, connecting the East Asia economic circle at one end and European economic circle at the other.
- The SREB focuses on bringing together China, Central Asia, Russia and Europe (the Baltic).
- It will link China with the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea through Central Asia and West Asia and will connect China with Southeast Asia, South Asia and the Indian Ocean.
- On land, the initiative will focus on jointly building a new Eurasian Land Bridge and developing China- Mongolia-Russia, China-Central Asia-West Asia and China-Indochina Peninsula economic corridors.
OBOR
- The 21st-Century MSR, in turn is designed to go from China’s coast to Europe through the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean in one route, and from China’s coast through the South China Sea to the South Pacific in the other.
China expectations from OBOR
- There are three main goals of China –
- Economic diversification
- Political stability
- Development of a multipolar global order
Pros of India joining OBOR
- It will increase the connectivity of the region.
- There may emerge mutually beneficial swap where India protecting Chinese interests in the Indian Ocean and China securing India’s essential undertakings in their part of the waters.
- Regional transport, energy security, and blue economy are key to OBOR initiative which will be helpful for India.
- China has the financial capital, technology to accelerate the development of other countries and India can use China’s resources and funds for its own development.
- The OBOR project will open more links of trade between India and other countries.
- India does not enjoy much leverage to guide ocean trade markets despite having proximity to the sea and a strong navy. Through OBOR project India will get access to more business in an environment which promote friendly reforms.
- India may become isolated in this region since all of its neighbours (except Bhutan) have joined One Belt One Road.
- Leaving any regional platform may hamper India’s credentials and may hasten the end of its regional hegemony.
India’s objections to OBOR
- India is not part of OBOR.
- India reaffirmed its opposition of One-Belt-One-Road initiative of China, stating that India will join multilateral connectivity initiatives in Asia, only if they were pursued through a consultative process.
- OBOR is a unilateral ideational of China and there is a lack of transparency in its working.
- The process is not participatory and collaborative in nature.
- Under Maritime Silk Route (MSR) China is developing ports in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan and is trying to enlarge its influence using its economic might in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
- Thus MSR is nothing but an economic disguise to the “Strings of Pearls” Theory.
- China is investing a huge amount of money in India’s neighbourhood and these countries tend to use the China card against India.
- Through OBOR, China is countering the strategies of India in North East region and is promoting its greater presence in North East India, part of which China claims as its own territory.
- For India, OBOR may be a potential economic opportunity but it also threatens India’s interests.
India’s Initiative to counter OBOR
- India recently proposed the ‘Cotton Route’ (India’scounter to the Silk Route) to strengthen economic ties between countries in the Indian Ocean rim.
- It has also launched Project Mausam and Spice Route apparently in response to China’s Belt and Road initiative.
- The ‘Mausam’ project envisages the re-establishment of India’s ancient maritime routes with its traditional trade partners along the Indian Ocean.
- India has launched SagarMala It is to promote port-led direct and indirect development and to provide infrastructure to transport goods to and from ports quickly, efficiently and cost-effectively.
- The project is to enhance the capacity of major and non-major ports and also to start their modernization process.
- India has developed Chabahar port in Iran.
- Chabahar Port location gives India access, besides Iran, to Afghanistan, central Asia, and Europe, bypassing Pakistan altogether.
- International North South Transport Corridor initiated by India, Russia, and Iran is another connectivity solution for India in Central Asia.
- India is developing naval ports in Indian Ocean regions like at Madagascar, Seychelles, and Mauritius.
- India is involved in the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORARC)grouping whose first summit took place in Jakarta in 2017.
- Japan and India re intended to build rail and road connectivity across the Eurasian landmass running parallel to OBOR.
DOKLAM PLATEAU STAND-OFF
What was the issue?
- Indian troops intervened to block the path of Chinese soldiers engaged inbuilding road-works on the Doklam plateau of Bhutan’s territory thatBeijing laid claim.
- This is the first time that India used troops to protect Bhutan’s territorial interests.
Why the Doklam Plateau is disputed?
- Doklam, or Donglang in Chinese, is an area spread over less than a 100 sq km comprising a plateau and a valley at the trijunction between India, Bhutan and China.
- It is surrounded by the Chumbi Valley of Tibet, Bhutan’s Ha Valley and Sikkim.
- The trijunction is disputed — India claims it is at Batang La, while China claims it is around 6.5 km to the south, at Gymochen.
- Both claims are based on competing interpretations of the 1890 Calcutta Convention between Britain and China.
- As per the agreement between the Special Representatives of India and China in 2012, the two sides have to maintain the status quo until their competing claims are resolved in consultation with the third party, Bhutan.
India’s concern
- The construction of road in the disputed Doklam area ‘would represent a significant change of status quo with serious security implications for India.
- The construction of a new road through the Chumbi valley would further endanger the “Chicken’s Neck” – the narrow Siliguri corridor links the north-east with the rest of India.
- India is vulnerable in this corridor as it is the only access point to the northeast. The Corridor is about 500 km from the Chumbi Valley.
Chinese reaction
- Following the tensions, Chinese authorities have closed the Nathu La pass to KailashMansarovar pilgrims.
- China served notice on India to withdraw its forces, as a precondition for a “meaningful dialogue” – unacceptable to India, unless the PLA also withdraws its troops and road-building teams.
- China has long desired an independent Bhutanese stand without Indian advocacy and interference on the boundary issue.
- China often dubbed India’s interference as hegemony in South Asia.
Conclusion of Doklam Stand-off
- The end of Dokalam standoff is a huge political, diplomatic & moral victory for India.
- The episode has significantly established the image of India as a responsible, decisive and reliable actor on the global scene.
- The episode has contributed to further strengthen relations between India and Bhutan.
- However India and China should not see Doklam in terms of point-scoring but rather as a warning of the need for extending their border management framework across other borders as well.
