Editorial Simplified: Balancing Pressures from U.S., China and Russia | GS – II

Relevance: GS Paper II (International Relations)


Theme of this article

At a time when India’s relationships with big powers like the U.S., Russia, China and Europe are increasingly being complicated by their rivalries with each other, the country needs to follow its traditional policy of strategic autonomy, focussing on its own vital interests.


Why has this article cropped up?

During President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit, India and Russia concluded a big $5 billion deal.


The Defence dimension of India-Russia relations

  • The most important peg for the relationship continues to be defence purchases and technology.
  • Russia is willing to share things that are not available from other sources — for example, submarine technologies.
  • It was a very well-considered decision for India to go ahead with the S-400 deal, which is one of the most effective missile defence systems.

Importance of Russia other than defence

  • Something that could have also been a more important part of the relationship — energy — has not really taken off, apart from a few licences for explorations.
  • But the bigger substance of the relationship is strategic. India’s main challenge is going to be China and how it is reshaping the region and global landscape, then Russia will always be an important partner. It is China which is expanding into Russia’s near neighbourhood in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

What will be the impact on ties with the U.S.?

The U.S. hasn’t formally given India a waiver under CAATSA, but given that India is a major purchaser of U.S. military hardware, and that those [the purchases] are expanding, the U.S. won’t want to undercut its relationship.


Balancing U.S., China and Russia

  • Whether it is the U.S., China or Russia, each one will try to push India in a direction it likes and it is for us to make our decision on how to balance these contrary pressures, and it is possible to do so.
  • India will be an important component of the reshaping of the world, and we have room for manoeuvre and to expand our strategic space.
  • India is, in fact, working with all world powers: the U.S., the European Union, Russia and China.
  • We have faced these pulls and pressures all along, and India now has more economic and military power than in the past and can play a more strategic game.
  • It makes no sense for the U.S. and the EU to isolate Russia in the long term, as China is likely to be the bigger challenge. In fact, there seems to be a lowering of Russia’s profile in the “rogues’ gallery”, and a greater focus on China in the last few months. One cannot discount the close trade engagement between the U.S. and China, but this is a trend that bears watching, which also has a positive impact on India-China ties.

Lowering of India-China tensions

  • Whenever there is a rise in U.S.-China tensions, we have seen a lowering of tensions between India and China.
  • The last year has seen a lowering of tensions, especially after the Wuhan summit. India has conceded to China on several issues:
    • a lower profile for the Tibetan movement and the Dalai Lama;
    • backing away from the ‘Quad’ concept; and,
    • at Doklam, turning a blind eye while the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) builds up infrastructure and stations more troops.
  • There is an expanding asymmetry of power between China and India. Where India sees its interests undermined by Chinese actions it must react, but not necessarily provoke a situation of conflict.

What about the Quad?

  • India appears to be shying away from the formation in which it was seen earlier as a countervailing balance to China in the Indo-Pacific.
  • Even when we first spoke about the Quad (in 2005), India was cautious about the idea, because we didn’t want to give the sense that we were setting up a military alliance against China in the Indo-Pacific.
  • This time around we are once again interested in the Quad as a consultative forum but not in taking it past the military threshold.

Conclusion

The stronger and more diversified relations India has with all the major powers, the more it will help us deal with our challenges. There is continuity today in our foreign policy with how it has always been.


 

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