Relevance : GS Paper II ( International Relations )
Theme of the article
India should not be overly optimistic about prying Riyadh away from Islamabad.
Why has this issue cropped up?
There seems to be much exultation in India that the visit by Saudi Crown Prince Salman will lead to further strengthening of Saudi Arabia-Indian ties.
Basis of such an exultation
- Saudi interest in expanding trade and investment in India and collaboration in the energy sector.
- Saudi is interested in developing an integrated refinery and petrochemicals complex at Ratnagiri in Maharashtra..
- Saudi Arabia is already one of the three largest suppliers of oil to India.
- Riyadh’s declaration that India is one of eight countries with which Saudi wants to intensify its strategic partnership in various fields.
The Pakistan angle
India should not be overly optimistic that growing Saudi-Indian relations in the economic sphere will succeed in prying Riyadh away from Islamabad. There are various reasons that lead to this conclusion.
- First, Pakistan is far too important to Saudi Arabia for internal security reasons for Riyadh to sacrifice its stake in Islamabad in order to appease New Delhi.
- Second, Afghanistan has been a point of strategic convergence for Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is interested in curbing Iranian influence in Afghanistan and needs Pakistan to contain Tehran’s ability to influence events in that country after the American withdrawal.
- Iran is Saudi Arabia’s chief adversary in West Asia. Riyadh perceives Pakistan as a major asset it can use to check the spread of Iranian influence. As Pakistan’s relations with Iran deteriorate, it is likely to move further into the Saudi orbit.
- Saudi economic largesse matters greatly to Pakistan, which is in dire economic straits and has been forced to turn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for loans that are bound to come with strict conditionalities.
Way forward for India
- In the context of this strategic and economic nexus between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, it will be unwise for New Delhi to seriously believe that it will be able to wean Saudi Arabia away from Pakistan.
- India should take advantage of any benefit that accrues from India’s economic relations with Saudi Arabia but should not pin much hope on Riyadh in the political-strategic sphere.
