THE DRAGON BECKONS AGAIN
Why has this issue cropped up ?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently visited China against the background of turbulence in global geopolitics and some domestic disquiet about “softening” of India’s China policy.
The present International Situation
The International backdrop is worrying in many respects.
• The face-off between the U.S. (and its allies) and Russia is arguably worse than during the Cold War. They confront each other, through proxy forces, in three active conflict zones — Ukraine, Syria and Afghanistan. The recent U.S.-French-British missile strikes in Syria were a stark reminder.
• As the U.S. ratchets up pressure on Russia, it has donned kid gloves in dealing with China. While India is being asked to address its trade surplus of about $25 billion with the U.S., Mr. Trump asked China to reduce its massive trade surplus of about $375 billion with the U.S. by just $1 billion!
• America’s decision to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a free trade grouping excluding China, effectively benefited China.
• India itself, running a trade deficit of over $50 billion with China, is in difficult negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a free trade grouping that includes China, ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
• The unpredictability of U.S. foreign policy is driving even its closest allies to hedge their options.
• Japan (like India) is concerned about China’s assertiveness in its neighbourhood and the geopolitical implications of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
India amid the present international set up
• The sharpening of U.S.-Russia acrimony has complicated India’s relations with both countries.
• Besides pressure to address the India-U.S. trade imbalance, India has been warned that its defence and energy links with Russia could attract U.S. sanctions under CAATSA — a development which could have a major impact on our defence preparedness.
• Russia’s intensifying defence cooperation with China and its actions in Afghanistan and with Pakistan are areas on which serious and delicate high-level India-Russia dialogue is being pursued.
Way forward for India
• With a strengthening Russia-China axis and with the U.S. taking its eye off China to deal with Russia, it is prudent for India to maintain a harmonious dialogue with China, even as we deal with the wrinkles in our relations with the other two great powers.
• This is not to say that India should not stand firm on its core interests, political, economic or strategic. We cannot overlook Chinese designs in our neighbourhood — from Doklam to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives — or ignore the larger geopolitical threat posed by the land and sea corridors of the BRI.
Conclusion
Foreign policy can be pursued far more effectively when it is supported by public perceptions. The reality is that India has to maintain a pragmatic balance in its relations with the three major powers, remaining conscious of the fact that elements of these relations will be continuously impacted by the dynamic flux of today’s global geopolitics.
Relevance : GS 2
