Editorial Simplified: Maldives – India Should Not Rest On Its Oars | GS – II

Relevance: GS Paper II (International Relations)


Why has this issue cropped up?

Following President Abdulla Yameen’s surprise defeat in the Maldivian election, the air of self-congratulation in New Delhi risks obscuring the challenges.


Importance of Maldives for India

  • The Maldivian archipelago, despite its tiny population, is of key importance to Indian security, given that it sits astride critical sea lanes through which much of India’s shipping passes.
  • From the Indian naval station on the Lakshadweep island of Minicoy, the Maldives’ northernmost Thuraakunu Island is just 100 km away.

Is India’s stand on Maldives justified?

  • The election victory of opposition candidate, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, against an increasingly autocratic Yameen represents a triumph of Indian patience.
  • Had India militarily intervened in the Maldives, it could have provoked a nationalistic backlash and strengthened Islamist forces in a country that has supplied the world’s highest per capita number of foreign fighters to terrorist groups in Syria and Iraq.
  • After Yameen in February declared a state of emergency and jailed Supreme Court justices and political opponents, India came under pressure, including from the Maldivian opposition, to intervene militarily, as it did once before — in 1988 when it foiled an attempted coup. But unlike in 1988, no legitimate authority was inviting India to send in forces. By erring on the side of caution and holding out an intervention threat if the voting were not free and fair, India aided the electoral outcome.
  • Contrast this with Indian missteps in Nepal, where India woke up belatedly to the political machinations in Kathmandu that led to a flawed new Constitution being promulgated. India then backed the Madhesi movement for constitutional amendments — an agitation that triggered a five-month border blockade of essential supplies to Nepal. The resulting Nepalese grassroots backlash against India eventually contributed to the China-aided communists sweeping Nepal’s 2017 elections.
  • The restoration of full democracy in the Maldives after, hopefully, a smooth transfer of power on November 17, will be a diplomatic boost for India.

The China factor

  • In Maldives, China may be down, but it’s not out and could, as in Sri Lanka, re-establish its clout through debt-trap diplomacy. Thus, in India’s larger strategic backyard, China continues to systematically erode Indian clout.
  • Yameen, who signed major financing and investment deals with Beijing, will be departing after pushing the Maldives to the brink of a Chinese debt trap.
  • Nearly 80% of the Maldives’ external debt — equivalent to about one-quarter of its GDP — is owed to China.
  • Even without any new contracts, the Maldivian debt to China will rise because of the Chinese projects already completed or initiated, thus allowing Beijing to retain its favourite source of leverage.

Option before Maldives

The post-Yameen Maldives — like Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka — would likely seek to balance relations with India and China, thus reinforcing how Beijing has fundamentally altered geopolitics in a subregion New Delhi long considered its natural sphere of influence.


What should India do?

  • As Maldives’ closest partner, a proactive India must leverage its ties.
  • India should assist in infrastructure development and be willing to refinance Maldives’ Chinese debt so as to achieve lower costs and a longer-term maturity profile.
  • India will have to closely watch China’s activities in the unpopulated Maldivian islands it managed to lease during Yameen’s reign.

Conclusion

China is muscling its way into India’s maritime backyard, including sending warships to the Maldives and signing an accord for an ocean observatory there that could provide critical data for deploying nuclear submarines. The new Maldivian government should be left in no doubt about India’s “red lines”.


 

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